This doesn’t look likely to be a major problem for damage or widespread power outages, but some sporadic power outages, or trees blown over in rain-soaked ground, may occur. The rain will be accompanied by some wind gusts, possibly exceeding 40 mph at times in a few spots. Nicole’s speed and prior dryness over a large part of the commonwealth east of the Blue Ridge will likely quell the chance of widespread, major flooding, but there could be localized flooding where especially heavy rain bands move over the same area repeatedly. Rain may begin as early as Thursday evening over parts of Southwest and Southside Virginia, with gradually increasing persistence and intensity into Friday. Its wind field will broaden but weaken while its rain shield will become more elongated and less firmly attached to the storm’s circulation center.Įven hundreds of miles in front of Nicole’s center of circulation, thick moisture will be transported on easterly trajectory winds, lifted by the gradually rising land from the ocean to the mountains, then more sharply by the mountain ridges.
Nicole has since become more recognizably tropical as it has moved west over very warm Atlantic Ocean water, but it will not take long for it to become a post-tropical cyclone as it is grabbed by the deep southward dip in the jet stream and slug northward rapidly over land. Nicole began earlier this week as a subtropical storm, a hybrid system showing some characteristics of a tropical system fed by warm ocean water and some characteristics of a “regular” baroclinic low-pressure system powered by contrasting air masses.
Nicole certainly fits in that category, though likely not remotely in the same league as 2012’s Sandy or 1954’s Hazel. Two weeks ago in this column, focusing on the 10 th anniversary of Superstorm Sandy, we discussed tropical systems being captured by polar troughs and becoming notable extratropical systems with a reach of rain and wind far away from palm-lined coastlines. Light to moderate drought exists in many locations east of the Blue Ridge ahead of Friday’s expected widespread soaking rain. The result for Virginia is likely to be a widespread soaking rain of 1 to 4 inches over all but perhaps the southeast corner of the state, with locally heavier amounts, especially where easterly wind flow rotating north of the storm center moves up and over terrain such as the Blue Ridge and other western Virginia mountain ridges, enhancing lift. After that, with high pressure that has blocked any previous northward move by Nicole slipping eastward, and a strong cold front pressing in from the west with the coldest air of the season so far, Nicole will get pulled northward over the inland Eastern U.S., zooming across or very near Virginia on Friday. Nicole, on the edge between a strong tropical storm and a hurricane on Wednesday afternoon, is headed for an early Thursday landfall along the east coast of Florida. The tundra and tropics will clash dramatically over our heads Friday, bringing a windy, soggy transition between a recent quick burst of summerlike warmth and a coming surge of winterlike cold for Southwest and Southside Virginia. Want to be the first to see weather news? Sign up for our weekly email weather newsletter, featuring weather journalist Kevin Myatt.
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